A flow of recent data from the U.S. government has made one thing strikingly clear: A surge in consumer spending is fueling strong growth, demonstrating a resilience that has confounded economists, Federal Reserve officials and even the sour sentiments that Americans themselves have expressed in opinion polls.
Spending by consumers rose by a brisk 0.4 percent in September the government said Friday – even after adjusting for inflation and even as Americans face ever-higher borrowing costs.
Economists caution that such vigorous spending isn’t likely to continue in the coming months. Many households have been pulling money from a shrinking pool of savings. Others have been turning increasingly to credit cards. And the additional savings that tens of millions of households amassed during the pandemic – from stimulus aid and reduced opportunities to travel, dine out and visit entertainment venues – are nearly depleted, economists say.
Still, the truth is no one knows where things go from here, given the unusual nature of the post-pandemic economy. The “death of the consumer” and an ensuing recession have been forecast by most economists for at least a year. So far, not only is no recession in sight but consumers as a whole appear to be in robust health. Spending might cool in the coming months, yet it’s far from clear it will collapse.
On Thursday, the government said the economy accelerated at a 4.9% annual rate in the July-September quarter, the fastest such rate since 2021, on the back of a jump in Americans’ spending. People spent on used cars and restaurant meals, airfares and hotel rooms. Much of it, even after adjusting for higher prices, was for discretionary items that suggested that many people feel confident in their finances and job security.
The durability of that spending has caught the attention of Fed officials, who have signaled that they will keep their key interest rate unchanged when they meet this week. But they’ve also made clear that they are monitoring the economic data for any sign that inflation could reignite and require further rate hikes.
“I have been consistently surprised at the resilience of consumer spending,” Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed’s board, said in a speech this month.
In the meantime, businesses, especially those in the sprawling service sector, are benefiting from what still appears to be pent-up demand, likely driven by higher-income earners, after the restrictions of the pandemic. Last week, Royal Caribbean Group reported robust quarterly earnings. Travelers crowded their cruise ships and spent more even as the company raised prices.
“The acceleration of consumer spending on experiences [has] propelled us towards another outstanding quarter,” said CEO Jason Liberty. “Looking ahead, we see accelerating demand.”
So what’s behind the outsize gains, so far? Economists point to several drivers: Sturdy hiring and low unemployment, along with healthy finances for most households emerging from the pandemic. Wealthier households, in particular, have enjoyed substantial growth in home values and stock portfolios, which are likely juicing their spending.
Steady hiring has sent the unemployment rate down to a near-five-decade low of 3.8 percent and lifted to a record high the proportion of women in their prime working years – ages 25 through 54 – who are employed. Measures of layoffs are near historical lows. More jobs mean more income, which generally means more spending. Some Americans, while keeping a close watch on their finances, still feel they have room to indulge themselves.
“We continue to believe that you shouldn’t bet against the consumer until actual job losses are on the horizon,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers.
And executives at Visa, which reported strong earnings and a surge of spending by their U.S. credit card customers overseas in the third quarter, have also downplayed the likely impact of student loan repayments.
The company isn’t “factoring in any impacts” from loan repayments “because we’ve yet to see any meaningful impact,” said Visa’s chief financial officer, Christopher Suh. “Consumer spending across all segments from high to low has remained stable since March.”