The slowing pace of home sales became even slower in June.

Statewide single-family home sales are down 5.8 percent for the first half of the year compared to the same period last year, and June sales alone are off 9.5 percent, according to data from The Warren Group, The Commercial Record’s parent company.

The rabbit-like pace of 2004 and 2005, which posted 45,863 and 43,418 annual single-family sales, respectively, has become more like a turtle’s speed, with 2007 on track to have the lowest number of sales in more than 10 years.

The real slowing took place in 2006, when the number of sales fell 14.01 percent to 37,337. So far, 2007’s pace is falling short of that mark.

But despite the declining number of single-family sales, the median sales price continues inching upward. Through June, the year-to-date median sales price climbed 1.82 percent to $280,000 versus $275,000 for the same period a year ago.

One possible cause of the trend is that “what’s trading is trading at the high end of the market,” said Edward J. Deak, a professor of economics at Fairfield University and the Connecticut model manager for the New England Economic Partnership.

“The transactions that are going through are prime and above, and they’re paying some decent prices for high-end properties,” Deak said. “That’s what is pulling the state up, I would think.”

Sales in Fairfield County have been especially pricey compared to the rest of the state. The county’s median price for the first half of the year was $574,500, and it was $629,500 for June, according to The Warren Group. The prices represent increases of 4.84 percent and 4.05 percent, respectively.

Fairfield County’s year-to-date median sales price is 105 percent higher than the statewide median price. The only other county with a year-to-date median price above the statewide figure of $280,000 is Middlesex County, at $287,250. All six of the other counties are below the statewide mark.

In addition to getting the higher prices, Fairfield County is leading the state in terms of the number of sales. The county recorded 4,336 sales in the first half of the year, which is down 5.18 percent from last year, but accounts for 26 percent of the 16,926 sales statewide.

Hartford and New Haven counties took second and third for the number of sales, with 4,173 and 3,749, respectively. Hartford County’s median price for the first half of the year was $238,000, and New Haven County’s was $248,500.

At the New England Economic Partnership’s forecasting meeting held this past spring, Deak discussed his predictions that the state’s median sales price would drop 6.9 percent this year and that the number of sales would fall 8.2 percent.

While noting the median price does not appear to be coming down, Deak added that “what is showing up is the larger concern – and that is the amount of houses being traded.”

Sales are already off by 5.80 percent and “the year is not going to get any better,” Deak said.

‘A Lot of Persistence’

Deak was not alone in expecting the prices to come down. A nationwide consumer survey highlights skepticism in the market, and data from the University of Connecticut indicates that prices are indeed coming down.

The statewide weighted average price of a mid-value single-family house fell 2 percent in the first quarter of 2007, and 0.92 percent in the second quarter, according to research from John Clapp, a professor at the Center for Real Estate at the University of Connecticut. His research tracks the value of homes using specific parameters, such as location, size, age and number of rooms.

“It was over a year ago when things started to flatten out,” Clapp said. Prices started to come down toward the end of 2006, he added.

“There is a lot of persistence in real estate markets,” he noted. “Once it establishes a direction, it tends to stay that way.”

Clapp said he expects that prices likely will remain flat or down for the next one or two years. And consumers agree with him.

Twenty-one percent of consumers in the Northeast expect their home values to decline in the coming year, while 48 percent expect the value to remain flat, according to the recently released Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. The remaining 31 percent anticipate an increase in their property values. The study defines the Northeast as the New England states plus New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

The median amount of value people in the Northeast expect their homes to gain in the coming year is 0.1 percent, according to Richard Curtin, director of the Survey of Consumers at the University of Michigan. Nationwide, the expectation is 0.2 percent, he said.

“On balance, nearly half of all homeowners expect no change in the year ahead,” Curtin said.

Flattening or falling values have a couple of implications, Curtin added. For one, declining values limit consumers’ ability to get money from home equity loans, which in turns limits their spending power, he said.

In addition, softer pricing “has a very corrosive effect on the housing market,” Curtin said. “There’s a lot of hesitancy in buyers. [A house] might be worth less by the time that they could close on it.”

Clapp agreed.

“Nobody wants to buy a declining asset,” he said.

The last time Clapp’s research showed a similar decline in property values was in 1989, which was the start of a housing market downturn that lasted six years before prices began to rebound.

“This probably won’t be that bad,” he said. “[The current decline] is more related to the credit and speculation and has less to do with overbuilding.”

Unlike the overdevelopment problems of the late 1980s, the current problem stems more from lax lending, he said.

“There was too much speculation,” Clapp said. “It was too easy to get loans. So it’s not surprising to see some adjustments.”

Still, the professor sees a potential fix.

“The economy could bring us out of this if it continues to grow and the interest rates stay low,” Clapp said.