Around this time last year, The Commercial Record held its annual reader poll. Respondents gave us insights into how 2013 had gone for them, and how they thought 2014 would turn out. The results were, in some ways, unremarkable; readers across all industries thought 2013 was better than 2012, and that 2014 would be better than 2013.
More than 58 percent of respondents thought the median single-family home sale price would increase moderately, and 55 percent thought the housing market was likely to improve overall.
They were not entirely correct. 2014 may have been better overall, but the housing market estimates turned out to be wildly optimistic.
As of August 2014 (the most recent date for which data was available at press time), there had been 16,805 single-family home sales year-to-date in Connecticut, compared to 17,128 at this time last year, according to data from The Warren Group, publisher of The Commercial Record. A drop of 323 homes is not an insignificant number in the third-smallest state in the nation, and the median sale price dropped a comparable 2.6 percent. (Although it’s not all bad news; two counties have seen positive year-over year growth. Sales are up 12 percent in Windham and 4 percent in Middlesex.)
So what’s the deal? Why does Connecticut’s residential real estate market lag its neighbors, and the rest of the country, in recovering from the recession? It’s a good question – a question The Commercial Record’s readers are asking – and there’s no good answer.
The reasons are legion, and taken together, they form a tight web that’s kept a lid on Connecticut’s housing recovery: Tight credit requirements are constricting who can get a mortgage; depressed wages are keeping earners from moving out and freeing up starter-home stock; Millennials are still living at home or in microapartments (or fleeing the state altogether); etc., etc., ad nauseam.
Each problem and challenge has a different root cause (or multiple causes). There’s no one solution and no cohesive plan.
But lest we all settle into the season with heavy hearts, there is cause for optimism. Though the long winter months (and corresponding dreary drop-off in home sales) will probably carry us out of 2014 with a whimper rather than a bang, this year has shown what Connecticut’s movers and shakers in the real estate and finance industries already know – that working together is the only way to accomplish change.
Every year, the respondents to CR’s reader poll tell us that next year will be better, and I expect they will have the same response this year. And around this time next year, I have every expectation that they will be proven correct.




