Buckle up for another bumpy ride in 2017’s real estate market.

The story of 2016 is the same as that of 2015; sales rose year-over-year while prices fell. A number of factors contributed to the whole, but the greatest of these was inventory – there were too many houses for sale in too many areas of the state. And of course when supply is up, prices fall.

The trend held true across the state – not even Fairfield County was immune. Prices have fallen in the southern county every year since 2013 according to data from The Warren Group, publisher of The Commercial Record. As of October (the most recent month for which data was available at the time of this writing), the year to date median in Fairfield County was down $40,000 from 2015, though sales were only barely up – 6,657 single-family homes were sold through October 2015, compared to 6,698 through October 2016.

Estimates for year-end sales figures projected a spike in applications and closings to get ahead of rising interest rates, which have been climbing since the Nov. 8 election and the Federal Reserve’s December decision to raise interest rates. While the Fed’s last-minute rate increase was not a surprise, it will certainly have an impact on markets across the country this year – as will the agency’s indication that it will do so again three more times in 2017.

Much of the real estate market is borne of necessity – people need to move for jobs, for health reasons, for expanding and contracting family dynamics, for financial reasons – and minor mortgage rate increases don’t make much of a difference in those circumstances. (And while it may feel like recent rate hikes are not “minor,” rates are in fact still near record lows.)

The impact is felt on the fringes of the market. Potential first-time homebuyers may find themselves locked out by ability-to-repay requirements; ditto for those living on fixed incomes.

There’s an upside, though; those who bought at the market’s nadir may find themselves less likely to move up and move on when they currently have a less expensive house, a lower interest rate and smaller monthly payments. This, in turn, results in fewer houses on the market, lessening the glut the state has seen in recent years.

On the other hand, there are more than enough Boomers with equity and solid financial footing looking to downsize, and higher rates will likely have little impact on their choices and ability to repay, which may negate any adjustment from other sectors of the market.

Connecticut’s refinance landscape is also likely to see some changes this year. Refis were up in October year over year and likely to be so again in November and December as procrastinators hurried to lock in before the year’s end. For the year, however, refis were down compared to 2015 (as of October).

Rising rates will make refis less attractive to consumers this year. Many buyers bought low or refinanced into a lower rate; for them, HELOCs and home equity loans make the most sense. That product offering will be big business in 2017 as the market continues to tighten and competition heats up.

Whatever the market holds in 2017, it’s going to be an interesting year from all quarters.