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Apartment Rents Could Decline for Two Years, Analysis Says

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Apartment rents will drop 6.7 percent nationwide from their 2019 peak because of economic turmoil related to COVID-19 and not recover until mid-2022, according to a CBRE Econometric Advisors analysis.

CBRE EA projects that vacancy rates will rise 2.7 percentage points to 6.3 percent by the third quarter amid a loss of 14 million jobs nationwide.

Nationally, CBRE EA projects that rents will drop 6.7 percent from their third-quarter 2019 peak and bottom out at $1,603 per month during the fourth quarter of 2020. Vacancies are projected to rise 2.7 percent to 6.3 percent in the third quarter of 2020.

The report’s rent and vacancy projections don’t reflect additional downside for apartment properties’ income from non-payment of rent, including deferred payments.