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Even as some forecasters are starting to predict serious price drops in housing markets across America, two of Connecticut’s three major real estate markets could be poised to do well next year.

Researchers at Redfin put the Hartford and New Haven areas at No. 9 and No. 10, respectively, on their list of the United States housing markets most likely to hold up to any impending price drops. The analysis came as part of the combination brokerage-and-listings-portal’s economists put together their predictions for the 2023 real estate market.

Among those predictions: a 16 percent drop in home sales nation-wide, led by a dramatic 31 percent year-over-year drop in the first quarter before stabilizing as the spring market develops; a 4 percent drop in the median U.S. home sale price; and a slight – if continued – drop in the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage interest rate to 5.8 percent by the end of 2023.

“If mortgage rates fall quickly to the mid 5% range by the spring that is certainly more likely, but so far our outlook is that rates will remain a bit too high, and the economic environment (e.g., the labor market) may deteriorate by the spring as well,” Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr told The Commercial Record in an email. “We have heard from Redfin agents that many of the delistings taking place right now are not anticipating coming back this spring. Seller sentiment is still very weak and as they sit on record-low mortgage rates, many will be incentivized to simply stay put. There should be relatively few foreclosure listings.”

So why do Marr and his colleagues think New Haven and Hartford will fair well, even if other parts of the country are shaken by slow demand? They’re among the relatively affordable Midwest and East Coast cities, like Chicago, Pittsburgh and Albany, New York that have weathered this year’s cooling market well.

“Hartford in particular has experienced very little increase in price cuts from sellers and the change in the speed of the market has also been small this year, as demand remains relatively steady,” Marr said. “New Haven stands out as having a more steady flow of pending sales as well as how little change there has been in the home’s sale price relative to asking price.”