A new survey from economists at listings portal Zillow adds more data behind the idea that 5 percent is the magic average mortgage interest rate for unlocking the housing market.
The researchers polled 1,815 American homeowners who hadn’t moved in at least 12 months about a range of topics during the first two weeks of June, and found that 38 percent of homeowners with a mortgage rate above 5 percent plan to sell within the next three years or have already put their home on the market, compared to only 21 percent with a mortgage below 5 percent.
That, along with other findings from the survey, suggest that a mortgage rate between 4 percent and 5 percent – or a downward trend in mortgage rates – will get sellers off the fence. The average rate on a 30-year, fixed, rate loan sat at 6.81 percent last week according to mortgage-buyer Freddie Mac.
Inventory shortages continue to plague the for-sale housing market, with little sign of relief.
Still, Zillow researchers were not optimistic their findings point the way to an unsticking of the housing market any time soon.
“We expect mortgage rates may notch down slightly as inflation comes under control, but they are unlikely to return to 5 percent in the near future,” Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, said in a statement. “That means many homeowners will move only for major life events, like a new baby or retirement. Over time, homeowners will likely accept higher rates as the new normal, but until then, the market could remain challenging for home shoppers, who will see fewer options and higher prices.”
Still, the survey found that the share of all homeowners who were thinking of listing in the next three years, or whose homes were currently on the market, was up significantly – 23 percent compared to 15 percent last June.





