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A new report by Yardi-owned commercial real estate data website CommercialEdge says that just under 45 percent of all commercial office debt in Connecticut is coming due by 2026.
A total volume of loans worth $3.95 billion is set to mature, the report said, putting the state in the top five major markets nationwide by share of loans maturing.
A significant chunk of that debt is coming due next year, Commercial Edge said: $2.42 billion or a bit over 27 percent of the $8.84 billion in outstanding commercial office loans statewide by dollar volume.
Maturities were slightly more concentrated in urban areas, the report said with maturing office debt in urban areas representing 23 percent of the state’s total office debt by dollar volume, while maturing debt in suburban areas making up 21 percent.
The statewide office vacancy rate sat at 18 percent in October, the report estimated, and the average rent in new leases was 2.7 percent lower than the average rent in expiring leases.
Among markets with a comparable vacancy rate, Chicago had roughly the same share of debt maturing by 2026, while only Atlanta had more, at just under 50 percent. Manhattan, Dallas, New Jersey and Phoenix, Arizona all had lower shares of debt maturing.
“The volume of loan maturities is worrying, coming at a time when the combination of weaker demand, rising costs and lower property values are squeezing office owners while banks and investors are trying to reduce exposure to offices,” the report’s authors wrote, referring to the national market.
The report found that of the $920 billion of commercial office mortgage debt nationwide, 16.1 percent by dollar volume will mature by the end of 2024, and 32.7 percent will mature by the end of 2026.
“How much office property distress will increase depends on the extent of interest rate increases and how long rates remain elevated. The worst-case scenario is if the job market weakens while property values continue to fall and interest rates rise from current levels. A more optimistic scenario would have the employment market remain strong while interest rates stop rising or even fall. In either scenario, office delinquencies are likely to jump, but the optimistic scenario would mitigate the pain as opposed to a larger crisis,” the report states.
