The economic outlook is on the upswing this year, with bank economists predicting 3 percent growth in the overall economy, boosted at least in part by healing banking and real estate sectors and falling energy prices.
Those were some of the prognostications that came out of last week’s forecast by the American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee.
While some challenges remain, the committee, which includes 15 economists hailing from some of the biggest banks in North America, predicted overall improvements in economic fundamentals this year.
While the committee expects the Fed to maintain interest rates near zero through the early half of 2015, followed by a gradual normalization over the next several years, the economists also predicted continued monthly job gains of 200,000 or more per month this year and low energy prices giving some saving and spending power back to the working and middle classes.
"Gas at about $2 a gallon is like an across-the-board tax cut," Ethan Harris, chairman of the group and co-head of global economics research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said at a conference. "Cash savings at the pump leave more money for consumers to save or spend elsewhere."
While the economists expressed some concern that job gains have not yet triggered healthy wage growth, they were also hopeful that the continued decline in unemployment would push wages higher.
"Solid job growth, improving wages and lower energy costs should encourage more families to spend," Harris said. The committee expects 3 percent real consumption growth in 2015.
The group also said it expected stronger residential investment this year, with gains in single- and multi-family starts and home sales and home prices rising nationally around 3.5 percent this year.
Furthermore, the committee predicted modest consumer credit growth and stronger business lending growth. The group predicted loans to individuals and loans to businesses to grow at around 6 percent and 10 percent, respectively, in 2015 and 2016.
Falling energy prices will temporarily push year-over-year headline inflation into negative territory, the group said, and added that the greatest near-term risks to the U.S. economy are lackluster growth in Europe, China and Japan.
The committee also stressed some long-term budget challenges, expecting the federal budget deficit to balloon again as greater droves of Baby Boomers enter retirement, but on the whole, the group predicted above-trend growth and low inflation.